@theMarket: Whipsaw Action Leaves Markets HigherBy Bill Schmick,
11:22AM / Saturday, May 04, 2024 | |
It was a week where macroeconomic data, corporate earnings, and the Federal Reserve dictated the direction of the markets on almost a daily basis. By the end of the week, the verdict was a plus for the bulls.
On Friday, the non-farm payrolls indicated that the labor market cooled notably in April. The U.S. economy added 175,000 new jobs which was a lot lower than the expected job gains of 240,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent. What is bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market since weaker macroeconomic data means the Fed may cut interest rates sooner rather than later.
At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back Keep Traders on Their ToesBy Bill Schmick,
02:09PM / Friday, April 26, 2024 | |
The S&P 500 bounced by more than 2 percent this week, retracing almost half of the 5 percent decline we have suffered so far in April. The jury is still out on whether this is only a dead-cat bounce or a signal that the downside is over.
It was a week of mixed messages for sure. Good earnings drove markets up on Monday and Tuesday. About 43 percent of companies listed on the S&P 500 Index have reported so far. Overall, 57 percent of them are beating estimates. Those that have been beaten are doing so by a median of 8 percent. There have been stand-out winners and losers among them.
Meta, for example, had good results, but its future guidance (higher 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Markets Sink as Inflation Stays Sticky, Geopolitical Risk HeightensBy Bill Schmick,
03:11PM / Friday, April 19, 2024 | |
Geopolitical risk, inflation, higher for longer, rising bond yields, take your pick. There are several reasons for the stock market sell-off. The bad news for investors is that after a counter-trend bounce, the selling should continue.
There are at least half a dozen reasons why the markets were down again this week. If you have been following my columns, you know that I have been expecting this decline for weeks. The truth is that this pullback is long overdue. I believe it is a healthy, if painful, development that could last a few weeks.
I am not discounting the reasons for this decline. The attack on Israel last weekend was gut-wrenching. My next-door 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Sticky Inflation Propels Yields Higher, Stocks LowerBy Bill Schmick,
03:11PM / Friday, April 12, 2024 | |
"One's a dot, two's a line, three's a trend," is how the saying goes. When applied to the inflation data this week, it spelled bad news for the financial markets.
Over the last two months, inflation showed increases in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as well as the Producer Price Index (PPI). This week, the March CPI data came in warmer than investors had hoped (0.4 percent versus expectations of 0.3 percent). The PPI was slightly below forecasts, but the monthly core index matched expectations. Not good.
Economists might say the jury is still out on calling a backup in the inflation rate, but traders shoot first and ask questions 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Stocks Consolidating Near Highs Into End of First Quarter By Bill Schmick,
02:29PM / Friday, March 29, 2024 | |
An important government inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), for February came in as expected on Good Friday. Since the markets were closed, as investors celebrate the three-day Easter holiday weekend, Monday, April 1, should be interesting.
Core PCE rose by 0.3 percent from the previous month. Year-over-year PCE prices rose by 2.8 percent, easing slightly from the 2.9 percent increase in January. The PCE is the Federal Reserve Bank's favorite inflation indicator. As such, it carries a lot more weight when determining whether the central bank will stand pat or decide to cut interest rates in the months ahead. The February numbers 0 Comments
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